U.S. President Donald Trump recently claimed on social media that the U.S. would halt imports of "used cooking oil" (UCO, or waste cooking oil) from China if Beijing failed to resume purchases of American soybeans, sparking global trade concerns. This threat, ostensibly targeting China’s soybean market, has inadvertently exposed the U.S.’s heavy reliance on biofuel raw materials, while China’s oleic acid industry capitalizes on the policy shift to enter a strategic growth phase.
On October 14, Trump posted on Truth Social, accusing China of “deliberately avoiding U.S. soybean purchases” as an act of economic hostility and threatening to terminate trade in “cooking oil” with China. However, U.S. media swiftly debunked the claim, revealing that Trump’s “cooking oil” referred to used cooking oil—a key feedstock for biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)—not culinary oil.
Data shows the U.S. imported 1.36 million tons of used cooking oil from China in 2023, with projections rising to 1.27 million tons in 2024, accounting for 43% of China’s total UCO exports. In contrast, U.S. soybean exports to China plummeted from over 50 million tons annually in previous years to just 27 million tons in 2024—less than half of peak volumes. Critics mocked Trump’s move as a “misguided gamble”: attempting to leverage a 1.1billionUCOtradetoforceChinaintobuying22.8 billion worth of U.S. soybeans.
Used cooking oil’s value lies in its high oleic acid content (approximately 50%) and low cost. China’s oleic acid sector has achieved technological milestones, refining UCO into biodiesel, fatty acid methyl esters, and glycerol at globally competitive standards. For instance, Henan Junheng Biotechnology and other firms have established production capacities of tens of thousands of tons, while China’s domestically produced C919 passenger jet completed test flights using biofuel derived from Chinese UCO, signaling progress in green energy autonomy.
Amid U.S. tariff pressures, China’s UCO export markets have pivoted. In the first eight months of 2024, exports to the U.S. dropped 65% year-on-year, while demand from Germany, Indonesia, and other nations surged. German imports of Chinese UCO rose 65% annually, underscoring China’s global competitiveness. Industry insiders note that future biodiesel production using edible oils—once technically mature—could further expand the sector, with China already accelerating domestic capacity to reduce reliance on external markets.
If Trump’s threat materializes, the U.S. biofuel industry will face immediate fallout. The U.S. recycles only half of its domestic UCO needs, heavily depending on Chinese imports. A Wisconsin biofuel plant executive revealed the facility invested $200 million in expansion last year, relying almost entirely on Chinese UCO. A supply cutoff would force shutdowns, jeopardizing hundreds of jobs.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the biofuel sector supports approximately 150,000 jobs, many concentrated in Trump’s “red state” strongholds. Replacing UCO with soybean oil would triple costs, while diverting soybean oil from food uses risks driving up grocery prices. Bloomberg commented that Trump’s threat “amounts to self-sabotage,” highlighting U.S. vulnerabilities in green energy transitions.
Trump’s “used cooking oil gambit” reflects retaliation against China’s countermeasures. On October 14, the U.S. Commerce Department expanded sanctions on 23 Chinese firms to thousands of entities under the “50% rule” and enforced vessel-related restrictions. China promptly escalated countermeasures in rare earths and U.S.-bound shipping, with the Ministry of Commerce warning: “If the U.S. persists, China will respond accordingly.”
Analysts note China’s trade strategy has shifted from “reactive defense” to “proactive布局 (strategic positioning).” By reducing UCO exports to the U.S., expanding South American soybean imports, and accelerating domestic biofuel capacity, China has mitigated trade war risks while gaining ground in green energy. Conversely, U.S. farmers face soybean surpluses, with USDA aid delays due to budget crises prompting many to consider switching to corn.
The episode underscores a broader trend: China’s transformation from a traditional commodity importer to a green energy technology exporter, contrasted with the U.S.’s short-sighted policies eroding its competitive edge. The International Energy Agency projects the global biofuel market will exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with China poised to lead through technological prowess and raw material autonomy.
Trump’s “used cooking oil blunder” may fade into anecdote, but it reveals a truth: in an interconnected global economy, unilateral attempts to rewrite trade rules carry heavy costs. China’s oleic acid industry rise epitomizes this historical shift.