Goldman Sachs predicts that China could cut its soybean imports by two-thirds within the next decade

Goldman Sachs' latest analysis shows that China could reduce its dependence on imported soybeans from the current 90% to below 30% over the next decade. Analysts pointed out that Beijing is actively strengthening its food security policies to protect its supply chain from external risks and trade frictions, including those with the United States.

The World Bank estimates that between 2021 and 2024, China reduced its annual soybean consumption by 15 million tons through demand management strategies. These measures include lowering the proportion of soybeans in feed, improving digestibility, and optimizing animal protein diets. These initiatives began during the first U.S.-China trade war and have helped mitigate the impact of trade barriers and instability.

Against the backdrop of growing domestic demand and China's desire to bolster its own market, Beijing reaffirmed its intention to rely on domestic resources to drive economic growth this week. Goldman Sachs stated that China may further cut imports after Washington made new commitments on future purchases. According to the White House, China has agreed to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year and 25 million tons annually over the next three years. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the delivery deadline for the initial shipment has been extended to the end of the growing season, i.e., February to March. He also noted that Beijing is currently fulfilling its commitments.

Despite importing over 100 million tons of soybeans annually, accounting for about 60% of global trade, Goldman Sachs said China has made "remarkable progress" in reducing its dependence on imports. The investment bank estimates that China's cultivated land gap will narrow from 90 million hectares to 84 million hectares by 2032, and technological advancements are expected to further reduce the gap to 5 million hectares by 2035.

Reposted from the WeChat Official Account:油脂工程师之家